Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x465a…d8d4 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$266 (-5%) realized −$176 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$40
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$157
other 18% −$73
politics 7% −$11
finance 4% −$1
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 +17.4% +6.2% 83% 58% +0.2%
≤90d 31 +0.5% -9.1% 71% 39% -13.5%
all 31 +0.5% -9.1% 71% 39% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 39% -13.5%
10% -17.8% 26% -21.7%
15% -25.7% 19% -29.3%
20% -33.0% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$55 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,369
Realized−$176
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)31 / 42
History coverage35d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $511 $502 −$9 (-2%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $254 $281 +$28 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $208 $226 +$19 (+9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 81¢ 55¢ $268 $180 −$88 (-33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 69¢ 78¢ $90 $101 +$11 (+12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 48¢ 31¢ $59 $38 −$20 (-35%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Yes 28¢ 57¢ $11 $22 +$12 (+109%)
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? No 85¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Yes 33¢ 10¢ $24 $8 −$17 (-69%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$10 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $373 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $200 +$26 +13%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $14 +$13 +95%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 03 $34 +$16 +45%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $328 +$28 +9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $42 +$8 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $44 +$26 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $230 +$65 +28%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 27 $234 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $274 +$71 +26%
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? May 24 $61 −$57 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $8 +$1 +10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 16 $33 −$33 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $195 +$5 +3%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 15 $384 −$382 -100%
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 15 $27 +$14 +52%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $6 +$3 +59%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $51 +$8 +15%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $24 +$56 +236%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $120 +$3 +3%
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 13 $191 −$1 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL No 29¢ $36 42m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $374 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $307 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $226 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 51¢ $0 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 51¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 51¢ $4 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 52¢ $6 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 48¢ $3 13d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $50 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $60 20d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $100 20d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $234 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 83¢ $40 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $230 21d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $4 24d
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? SELL No 6¢ $4 24d
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? BUY No 85¢ $9 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 67¢ $5 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 30d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 86¢ $87 30d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 31d
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $18 31d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $50 31d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $20 31d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $8 31d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $1 31d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $0 31d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $0 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,368.87 · official $1,368.87 (match) · 161 history records