Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x465d…9868 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$2
other 22% +$8
politics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 44% 0% -9.2%
all 32 -0.8% -10.3% 56% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -8.5%
10% -18.9% 3% -17.3%
15% -26.7% 3% -25.3%
20% -33.9% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage466d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $101 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $95 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $122 +$7 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $73 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -56%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $3 $0 +2%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian ele Apr 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 28 $25 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $19 $0 +2%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 18 $5 $0 +0%
Israel wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 18 $24 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $16 +$8 +54%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $52 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $53 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $53 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $44 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $20 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $28 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 62¢ $43 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $12 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $25 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $43 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $47 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $28 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $28 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $47 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $48 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $34 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.70 · official $52.28 (match) · 109 history records