Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x465e…dcfd crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$858 (+11%) realized +$1,063 · open −$205
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$532per market
Trades / day108.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.2% -34.2% 42% 42% -3.9%
≤30d 12 -27.2% -34.2% 42% 42% -3.9%
≤90d 12 -27.2% -34.2% 42% 42% -3.9%
all 12 -27.2% -34.2% 42% 42% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 42% -3.9%
10% -40.5% 33% -13.1%
15% ← realistic here -46.2% 33% -21.5%
20% -51.5% 33% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$570 vs −$345 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized+$1,063
Unrealized−$205
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$532
Trades / day108.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $312 $585 +$274 (+88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $495 $16 −$479 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $1,913 +$1,275 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $700 +$434 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $1,219 −$1,150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $538 −$523 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $459 −$448 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $1,294 +$790 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $567 +$343 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $288 −$180 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $3,188 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $34 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $241 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $23 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $13 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $628 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $919 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $97 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $232 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $700 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $602.51 · official $602.51 (match) · 110 history records