Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x465f…7bcb other 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%16W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$24
14 days−$28
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$25
other 25% −$25
sports 16% −$5
crypto 9% −$8
economics 5% −$3
culture 4% −$4
world 4% −$6
tech 3% −$5
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 73 -0.6% -10.1% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 157 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 171 -0.5% -9.9% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses16 / 155
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage98d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $387 −$2 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $172 −$2 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $63 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $378 −$6 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $58 −$2 -4%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $198 −$3 -1%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $43 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 09 $17 $0 -1%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 07 $54 +$3 +6%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $114 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $458 −$3 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $386 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $114 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $131 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $112 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $185 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $114 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY No 98¢ $45 56m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 8h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $39 9h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $5 13h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $35 14h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $51 14h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $52 21h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $47 22h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $48 30h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $56 31h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $57 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $46 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $17 46h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $28 46h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $36 47h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $36 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $52 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $14 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 3d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.38 · official $45.38 (match) · 715 history records