Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x465f…2622 weather 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%154W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$2
world 5% +$1
other 3% $0
politics 1% −$23
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 83 -1.0% -10.5% 99% 0% -10.9%
all 156 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$23 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses154 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage182d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 3 Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on May 25? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 25? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 24? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 11? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on May 8? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 7? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on May 5? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 4? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 3? May 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 2? May 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $22 +$1 +3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $22 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 5? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 3? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 0m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.25 · official $7.25 (match) · 316 history records