Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x465f…14b9 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$2
world 24% +$1
politics 21% +$2
crypto 9% −$1
sports 8% +$1
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 0% -9.2%
all 31 -2.9% -12.1% 48% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -8.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.53 per $1 lost it wins $4.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage467d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $73 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Israel strike on Iran on June 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $15 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next? Apr 19 $14 $0 +4%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? Apr 14 $2 $0 +19%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 06 $16 $0 -1%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 18 $13 +$1 +4%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 09 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $38 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $38 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $35 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $35 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $38 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $14 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $8 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $2 24d
Israel strike on Iran on June 21? BUY No 0¢ $0 362d
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec BUY No 98¢ $2 388d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 402d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 402d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 402d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 403d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can SELL No 97¢ $14 417d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 419d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 419d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 419d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can BUY No 97¢ $14 419d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? SELL No 99¢ $15 419d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? BUY No 99¢ $15 419d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.14 · official $38.18 (match) · 82 history records