Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4663…b80c crypto 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-11%) realized −$110 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%38W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$198
sports 6% +$11
world 3% −$35
other 1% −$4
finance 1% −$1
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +37.2% +24.1% 27% 27% -20.9%
≤30d 51 -31.2% -37.8% 14% 14% -37.1%
≤90d 261 -32.0% -38.4% 15% 14% -33.8%
all 261 -32.0% -38.4% 15% 14% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 14% -33.8%
10% -44.3% 14% -40.2%
15% -49.7% 13% -45.9%
20% -54.6% 12% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses38 / 223
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)261 / 262
History coverage64d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 21¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 +$36 +873%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +122%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$5 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$6 +522%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$26 +819%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $10 16m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $11 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $11 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 24¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $2 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $23 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $4 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $7 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.76 · official $4.76 (match) · 635 history records