Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
46 0x4666…768c other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$2
other 27% +$2
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% +$4
politics 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 17 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 12% -8.7%
≤90d 17 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 12% -8.7%
all 49 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 8% -8.4%
10% -18.0% 6% -17.2%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.2%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage485d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $43 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $95 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $44 −$2 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $80 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $38 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $14 +$3 +23%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 26 $2 $0 -11%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $31 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 24 $16 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 23 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $2 $0 -11%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $16 $0 -0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $16 $0 -0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Villanova vs. Seton Hall Mar 20 $11 +$4 +32%
Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) Feb 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Feb 25 $11 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $22 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $22 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $17 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $44 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $43 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $34 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $34 27h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $42 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $44 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.25 · official $43.25 (match) · 156 history records