Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4669…090a other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$9
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$30
crypto 15% +$11
politics 10% +$8
finance 8% +$6
economics 7% −$2
tech 4% +$4
sports 1% −$2
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 15 +3.4% -6.5% 60% 40% -2.7%
≤90d 30 -6.1% -15.1% 60% 30% -9.5%
all 30 -6.1% -15.1% 60% 30% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 30% -9.5%
10% -23.2% 13% -18.1%
15% -30.6% 10% -26.1%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions28
Markets (closed)30 / 58
History coverage91d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 54¢ 19¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 82¢ 52¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 94¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 88¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 76¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 25 $26 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $12 +$4 +35%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $11 +$4 +38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $19 +$5 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 04 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 18 $14 +$1 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 01 $9 +$1 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $39 +$4 +9%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 01 $22 $0 -1%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $29 −$15 -52%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $40 −$28 -70%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 14 $42 −$9 -22%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $8 +$1 +10%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $71 +$3 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $54 +$25 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $9 +$1 +6%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 01 $23 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 3m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 24m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 50m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 56m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $44 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $46 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $8 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $38 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $45 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $3 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $6 2h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $22 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $23 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $23 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $23 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.89 · official $54.79 · 254 history records