Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x466a…dbee
crypto · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$2 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.8% -13.0% 80% 27% -7.9%
≤30d 15 -3.8% -13.0% 80% 27% -7.9%
≤90d 15 -3.8% -13.0% 80% 27% -7.9%
all 15 -3.8% -13.0% 80% 27% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 27% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 20% -16.7%
15% -28.9% 7% -24.7%
20% -35.9% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records