Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4671…da69 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,706 (-52%) realized −$3,526 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$2,917
other 28% −$1,011
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -52.0% -56.6% 17% 17% -61.1%
≤30d 6 -52.0% -56.6% 17% 17% -61.1%
≤90d 6 -52.0% -56.6% 17% 17% -61.1%
all 6 -52.0% -56.6% 17% 17% -61.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.6% 17% -61.1%
10% ← realistic here -60.7% 0% -64.8%
15% -64.5% 0% -68.2%
20% -68.0% 0% -71.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$774 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,526
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $616 +$120 +20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,371 −$103 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,931 −$2,240 -76%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $308 −$74 -24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $973 −$951 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $126 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $78 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $532 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 43¢ $768 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $1,013 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $500 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $357 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $260 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $367 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 34¢ $666 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $116 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $6 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $462 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $87 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $736 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $765 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $736 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $14 5h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $510 41h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $234 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $308 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $61 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 51 history records