Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x4673…7787 sports 36 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$112 (+20%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$73
14 days+$110
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.8% -11.2% 50% 50% +27.8%
≤30d 36 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% +7.3%
≤90d 36 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% +7.3%
all 36 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 50% +7.3%
10% -3.0% 47% -3.0%
15% -12.3% 42% -12.4%
20% -20.9% 31% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage11d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Alexander Shevchenko vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $42 +$20 +47%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Kamilla Rakhimo Jun 13 $31 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $41 +$30 +74%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $23 +$22 +93%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $13 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $14 +$7 +52%
Silva vs. Donski: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $10 +$9 +92%
Mena vs. Rodriguez: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $14 $0 -3%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $44 +$19 +43%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $20 −$4 -20%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 08 $22 +$8 +38%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 08 $21 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 08 $8 +$25 +303%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Jun 08 $21 +$9 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $18 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 08 $16 −$3 -22%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $10 +$7 +71%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$22 +421%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $16 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 06 $17 +$11 +64%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 06 $14 +$7 +51%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 05 $34 −$34 -99%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $10 +$11 +109%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 04 $20 −$19 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Suplex Team (BO3) - BetBoom Ris Jun 04 $11 +$4 +33%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $6 +$10 +167%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Jun 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 04 $16 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $14 −$3 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Alexander Shevchenko vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri BUY Alexander Shevchenko 50¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 67¢ $21 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 68¢ $21 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Adam Walton 15¢ $5 3d
Game Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5) BUY Team WE $1 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Kamilla Rakhimo BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 50¢ $16 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Kamilla Rakhimo BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 50¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 54¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 54¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 56¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 56¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 59¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY SPARTA 19¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY SPARTA 19¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Bebop 100¢ $45 5d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 51¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 51¢ $11 5d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $5 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 50¢ $3 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win SELL Top Esports Challenger 39¢ $0 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win SELL Top Esports Challenger 39¢ $10 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 39¢ $0 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 39¢ $4 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 39¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series SELL Walczaki 100¢ $22 6d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Walczaki 65¢ $14 6d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 53¢ $12 7d
Mena vs. Rodriguez: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $14 7d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $64 7d
Silva vs. Donski: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records