Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

46 0x4674…f951 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$12 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate80%12W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day33.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-8.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+1.2%	-8.4%	80%	53%	-6.7%
≤30d	15	+1.2%	-8.4%	80%	53%	-6.7%
≤90d	15	+1.2%	-8.4%	80%	53%	-6.7%
all	15	+1.2%	-8.4%	80%	53%	-6.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.4%	53%	-6.7%
10% ← realistic here	-17.2%	20%	-15.7%
15%	-25.2%	13%	-23.8%
20%	-32.5%	0%	-31.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late +5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.27 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$60

Realized+$12

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses12 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day33.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5	Under	96¢	95¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5	Over	95¢	100¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 29	$44	+$9	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 29	$37	+$5	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 29	$37	+$2	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 29	$26	+$9	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 29	$25	+$3	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 29	$18	+$6	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 29	$25	−$25	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 29	$34	+$4	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 29	$25	+$2	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 29	$25	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 29	$26	+$12	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 29	$25	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 29	$21	−$21	-99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 29	$17	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 29	$17	+$4	+22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	96¢	$50	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$44	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$43	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$37	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$37	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$35	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$18	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$36	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$4	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	SELL Up	17¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$4	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$37	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$4	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$17	3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$17	3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$17	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$21	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.34 · official $60.34 (match) · 34 history records