Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
46 0x4675…b0d5 sports 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%118W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$49
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$66
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -4.1% -13.2% 69% 54% -8.6%
≤30d 175 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 54% -10.6%
≤90d 175 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 54% -10.6%
all 175 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 54% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 54% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 35% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 25% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 15% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses118 / 57
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)175 / 181
History coverage10d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Team Resilience 91¢ 100¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+10%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 81¢ 64¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $20 +$8 +42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $22 +$4 +19%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $4 −$1 -24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $80 −$27 -34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $79 +$27 +35%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $120 −$61 -51%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $40 +$8 +21%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $19 +$6 +29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $20 +$19 +93%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $10 +$5 +57%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $23 +$6 +24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 +$2 +8%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $99 +$63 +64%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $80 +$19 +24%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$6 +21%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $40 −$19 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 81¢ $15 12m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 91¢ $29 1h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 37¢ $2 4h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $2 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $2 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 44¢ $1 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $3 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 71¢ $4 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $1 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 92¢ $20 7h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $20 8h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $2 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $17 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 36¢ $35 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 69¢ $19 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $20 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $20 12h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 65¢ $20 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $20 13h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 58¢ $2 14h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 95¢ $20 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $2 14h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 94¢ $20 15h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $10 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $2 18h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 73¢ $30 19h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $2 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 75¢ $30 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $20 29h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.40 · official $52.42 · 502 history records