Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4676…3d2b crypto 761 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$497 (-1%) realized −$497 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%489W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$232
14 days−$277
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$919
sports 2% −$177
world 1% −$17
other 0% +$71
tech 0% +$34
finance 0% +$30
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -2.1% -11.4% 64% 61% -12.1%
≤30d 115 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 59% -12.2%
≤90d 174 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 57% -16.4%
all 761 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 60% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 60% -11.5%
10% -20.3% 48% -19.9%
15% -28.0% 33% -27.7%
20% -35.1% 19% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$48 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$497
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses489 / 272
Open positions0
Markets (closed)761 / 761
History coverage139d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 761 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$49 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $62 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$54 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$23 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$18 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $82 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $63 −$54 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$14 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$68 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $189 +$69 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $81 +$29 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $66 +$25 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$29 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$33 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $156 −$137 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2971 history records