Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4676…1639
sports · 749 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,308 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,288 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$5,288
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses372 / 374
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$402
Open positions2
Markets (closed)746 / 749
History coverage133d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 2 History 746 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days−$218
14 days−$1,139
30 days−$1,409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 6¢ 2¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-74%)
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-03-28? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $201 $0 −$201 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-17? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HOTU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Playoffs Leo Team 37¢ 0¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Spread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-10.5) Wake Forest Demon Deacons 48¢ 0¢ $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-10? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-16? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Spirit 58¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 19¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Astralis 43¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 76¢ 0¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-12? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BIG 53¢ 0¢ $322 $0 −$322 (-100%)
Real Racing Club vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage Falcons Force 21¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Under 4¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Team Falcons 62¢ 0¢ $187 $0 −$187 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #3 Playoffs Phantom 44¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $58 +$103 +177%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $77 +$28 +36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $99 +$62 +62%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $59 +$97 +165%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $75 −$74 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $327 −$322 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $201 +$126 +63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $97 −$96 -98%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $163 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $38 −$37 -97%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 09 $48 −$47 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $136 −$133 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $98 −$96 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $264 −$115 -44%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $102 +$114 +112%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $139 −$137 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $84 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $150 +$33 +22%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $69 −$68 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $92 +$83 +90%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $115 −$20 -18%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $102 +$112 +109%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $97 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $198 +$336 +170%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 06 $143 −$141 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $206 +$68 +33%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $84 −$10 -12%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 06 $36 +$47 +131%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $125 +$112 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $137 +$116 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $71 +$139 +194%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $99 −$98 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $49 −$48 -97%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 05 $68 −$67 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $49 +$179 +365%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 05 $89 +$48 +54%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $132 +$99 +75%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $139 −$137 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $153 −$22 -14%
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $63 −$61 -98%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $101 −$57 -56%
Will Oman win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $49 −$48 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $40 −$39 -98%
Will England win? Jun 04 $142 +$33 +23%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $49 +$15 +32%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% −$4,465
other 31% −$474
crypto 0% −$251
world 0% −$105
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 3¢ $35 4m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 6¢ $26 12m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 29m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $161 36m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $58 1h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 62¢ $105 1h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $77 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 25¢ $48 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $2 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) SELL MOUZ 100¢ $157 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 37¢ $59 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $160 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $66 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $33 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $75 21h
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 53¢ $327 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BIG 75¢ $328 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 38¢ $97 3d
Will India win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $163 3d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY TYLOO 11¢ $38 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 45¢ $201 3d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu BUY AM Gaming 8¢ $48 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 25¢ $136 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 27¢ $98 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 45¢ $117 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $215 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 51¢ $139 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $139 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $147 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -0.0% -9.6% 44% 44% -14.0%
≤30d 188 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 38% -19.1%
≤90d 544 -7.9% -16.7% 43% 40% -17.2%
all 746 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 42% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 42% -15.2%
10% -22.5% 35% -23.3%
15% -30.0% 29% -30.7%
20% -36.9% 24% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.15 · official $79.15 · 1360 history records