Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
46 0x467d…8158 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist
Total PnL +$684 (+47%) realized +$684 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$1
crypto 24% +$52
other 20% +$406
tech 13% +$227
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 +22.7% +11.0% 60% 44% -2.2%
≤90d 34 +40.4% +27.0% 59% 47% -4.2%
all 39 +51.9% +37.5% 64% 54% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.5% 54% +32.9%
10% +24.3% 46% +20.2%
15% +12.3% 46% +8.6%
20% +1.3% 46% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +101% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$5 · ×6.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.76 per $1 lost it wins $11.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$684
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage100d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 26 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 25 $299 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2AM ET May 31 $15 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 30 $9 +$41 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5AM ET May 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 17 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? May 17 $98 +$22 +22%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? May 11 $87 +$13 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 19? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -93%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $104 +$126 +122%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $90 +$110 +122%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 20? Mar 23 $103 +$117 +113%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 20 $107 +$153 +144%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 18? Mar 19 $80 +$120 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $158 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $159 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $158 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $159 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $150 23h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $150 23h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $150 23h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $150 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 100¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 97¢ $8 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 97¢ $21 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? BUY Down 95¢ $19 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records