Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
46 0x4680…fe34 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$199 (+29%) realized +$199 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$81
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$68
other 24% +$115
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +16.7% +5.5% 58% 58% +8.8%
≤30d 23 +11.6% +0.9% 52% 52% -0.2%
≤90d 29 +27.4% +15.3% 59% 59% +16.3%
all 29 +27.4% +15.3% 59% 59% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 59% +16.3%
10% +4.3% 59% +5.2%
15% -5.8% 59% -5.0%
20% -15.1% 52% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage51d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$23 +114%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$14 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$16 +79%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$12 +57%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$12 +57%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$30 +146%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$38 +188%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$38 +188%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $41 +$84 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? May 13 $41 −$5 -12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $23 +$19 +81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 03 $30 +$14 +46%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 03 $24 +$20 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 20h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 43h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 43h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 43h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 3d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $25 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 6d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 37¢ $41 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 40d
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $36 40d
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 40d
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 40d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 48d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.80 · official $24.80 (match) · 51 history records