Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4682…9a13 crypto 455 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-5%) realized −$95 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%225W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$119
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -15.6% -23.6% 39% 20% -26.8%
≤30d 195 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 21% -26.0%
≤90d 425 -5.9% -14.8% 49% 31% -17.4%
all 454 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 30% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 30% -16.7%
10% -22.7% 22% -24.7%
15% -30.1% 17% -32.0%
20% -37.0% 14% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses225 / 229
Open positions1
Markets (closed)454 / 455
History coverage102d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.48 · official $2.48 (match) · 1343 history records