Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4683…0592 crypto 1181 markets active 6d ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$312 (+2%) realized +$312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%516W / 796L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day191.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$943
7 days−$1,186
14 days−$693
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$825
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 564 -62.5% -66.1% 18% 13% -33.7%
≤30d 1312 -13.0% -21.2% 39% 34% -10.4%
≤90d 1312 -13.0% -21.2% 39% 34% -10.4%
all 1312 -13.0% -21.2% 39% 34% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover191.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 34% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 29% -19.0%
15% -35.7% 25% -26.8%
20% -42.0% 22% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses516 / 796
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1312 / 1181
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day191.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1312 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records