Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x468e…2141 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$631 (-0%) realized −$631 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 108L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,210per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$24
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$162
politics 35% −$67
sports 21% −$419
culture 2% −$4
economics 1% −$2
world 1% −$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +1.4% -8.3% 12% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 5% -10.4%
all 129 -2.2% -11.5% 16% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 11% -9.9%
10% -20.0% 11% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 11% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$1,434) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$23 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$631
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,210
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $296 $297 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,970 −$2 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 22 $629 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,540 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,022 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,980 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,852 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,842 −$4 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $61 +$60 +97%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $943 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $115 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $505 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,781 −$2 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $57 +$31 +55%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $306 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 21 $1,089 −$1,089 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,305 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $2,441 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2,328 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $5,577 −$6 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $1,341 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $626 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $627 3h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $628 4h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $629 5h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $628 8h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $629 10h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $551 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $551 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $631 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $632 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $271 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $271 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $557 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $558 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $631 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $632 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $632 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $633 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $632 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $633 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $635 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $636 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $296 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $868 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $870 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $857 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $858 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $837 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $838 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $815 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.57 · official $296.57 (match) · 455 history records