Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x4692…242c other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$542 (+12%) realized +$489 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%41W / 37L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$23
14 days−$74
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$376
politics 24% +$92
world 12% +$21
finance 3% +$34
economics 3% −$50
sports 1% −$9
tech 0% +$8
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.7% -31.0% 45% 36% -12.2%
≤30d 23 -16.1% -24.0% 48% 39% -11.4%
≤90d 56 -8.1% -16.9% 52% 43% -1.9%
all 78 +12.5% +1.8% 53% 44% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 44% -0.3%
10% -7.9% 27% -9.9%
15% -16.8% 14% -18.6%
20% -25.0% 10% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$489
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses41 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage236d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 52¢ 82¢ $107 $169 +$62 (+58%)
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat Jun 23 $275 −$19 -7%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $80 +$16 +19%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $291 +$22 +8%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 17 $7 −$6 -95%
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con Jun 17 $18 +$8 +42%
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +78%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -58%
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $21 −$19 -88%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $25 −$17 -69%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $44 −$12 -28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $88 +$11 +13%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 10 $130 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $216 −$13 -6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $140 +$32 +23%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $165 −$11 -7%
Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $152 +$13 +9%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $67 −$56 -83%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $19 +$5 +30%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M May 28 $70 +$13 +19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 27 $206 +$45 +22%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 21 $40 −$22 -54%
Will Rayan be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $100 +$19 +20%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? May 19 $29 +$6 +21%
Will Fabinho be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 19 $29 +$2 +8%
Will Leo Pereira be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 19 $39 +$13 +33%
Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ May 19 $21 +$7 +32%
Will Igor Thiago be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 19 $79 +$21 +26%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 13 $40 −$5 -14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 12 $50 +$17 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 08 $278 +$39 +14%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Apr 29 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? Apr 29 $146 +$179 +123%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 27 $10 −$6 -64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 20 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $20 −$14 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 13 $15 −$6 -40%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $52 +$21 +40%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $15 −$9 -60%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 07 $12 +$3 +23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $10 −$3 -29%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 07 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 72¢ $80 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 72¢ $11 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 68¢ $67 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 68¢ $13 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 69¢ $67 2h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 70¢ $14 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $48 23h
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the Au BUY Yes 15¢ $16 23h
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the Au BUY Yes 19¢ $20 23h
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the Au BUY Yes 10¢ $14 23h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $33 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 39h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 39h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 39h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 3d
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY Yes 68¢ $14 3d
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY Yes 69¢ $4 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 3d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 84¢ $20 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 84¢ $12 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $32 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 80¢ $25 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $21 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 79¢ $40 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.57 · official $213.57 (match) · 544 history records