Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x4692…68ed other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$540 (-4%) realized −$540 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%26W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$30
14 days−$384
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$26
other 22% −$319
world 7% −$286
crypto 3% +$88
economics 3% −$1
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -9.2% -17.9% 50% 45% -12.8%
≤30d 37 -14.7% -22.8% 49% 46% -21.6%
≤90d 41 -10.9% -19.3% 51% 49% -19.2%
all 54 -11.2% -19.6% 48% 46% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 46% -12.9%
10% -27.3% 30% -21.3%
15% -34.3% 17% -28.9%
20% -40.8% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$38 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$540
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage620d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $61 −$3 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$23 +57%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $40 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $47 +$10 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$55 -54%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $71 +$30 +43%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $91 −$27 -30%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +34%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -47%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +29%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -51%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $70 +$15 +22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$5 -9%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$7 +35%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 −$25 -55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 +$7 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$3 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 −$27 -77%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$15 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$87 -86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $211 −$110 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $161 +$53 +33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $136 +$29 +22%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $138 −$2 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $218 +$38 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $100 −$97 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $150 −$148 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $100 +$40 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $70 +$38 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $290 −$81 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $56 +$15 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 04 $80 +$53 +67%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $60 +$20 +34%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jul 28 $170 −$127 -75%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 15 $100 +$64 +64%
Will Solana hit $275 by January 31, 2025? Jan 12 $90 +$18 +20%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $80 +$11 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Jan 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6? Dec 07 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 01 $68 +$8 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Nov 15 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 9m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 61¢ $50 13m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 29m
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $57 29m
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $64 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? SELL No 86¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 87¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 4h
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 88¢ $40 7h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY No 69¢ $10 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 25h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $57 27h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $47 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $46 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 31h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $71 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY No 91¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 53¢ $63 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 74¢ $91 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 74¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY No 67¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL No 29¢ $5 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL No 84¢ $13 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.62 · official $29.62 (match) · 147 history records