Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4692…0fee sports 629 markets active 0h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,846 (-4%) realized −$3,846 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate76%478W / 151L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$643
14 days−$1,351
30 days−$1,351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$3,318
crypto 13% −$577
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -13.9% -22.1% 68% 21% -14.1%
≤30d 41 -18.7% -26.5% 61% 20% -17.6%
≤90d 127 -12.7% -21.0% 67% 18% -15.6%
all 629 -5.4% -14.4% 76% 19% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 19% -12.7%
10% -22.6% 11% -21.1%
15% -30.1% 8% -28.7%
20% -37.0% 5% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$80 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses478 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions0
Markets (closed)629 / 629
History coverage249d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 629 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $209 +$3 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $107 +$4 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 25 $101 +$2 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina Jun 25 $102 +$4 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $184 −$184 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $247 −$62 -25%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $611 −$153 -25%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv: O/U 175.5 Jun 21 $144 −$144 -100%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball: O/U 179.5 Jun 21 $70 +$77 +111%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $89 −$89 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 Jun 21 $112 +$48 +43%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $92 +$17 +19%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $432 −$336 -78%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $695 −$267 -38%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Jun 21 $700 +$6 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 21 $697 +$77 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $992 +$37 +4%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 20 $918 +$101 +11%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 20 $313 +$2 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $911 +$8 +1%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5 Jun 20 $682 +$11 +2%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 Jun 20 $164 +$2 +1%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 Jun 20 $54 +$2 +3%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $742 +$184 +25%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $519 +$222 +43%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $1,379 −$4 -0%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $485 +$24 +5%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $177 +$4 +2%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $498 +$1 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $176 −$174 -99%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $167 +$9 +5%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $165 −$164 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $514 −$77 -15%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $794 −$86 -11%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $294 −$294 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $307 +$79 +26%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $102 −$102 -100%
ITF Bol: Andrey Chepelev vs Noa Vukadin May 23 $99 +$1 +1%
ITF Bol: Nikita Mashtakov vs Maks Kasnikowski May 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $50 +$75 +151%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $268 +$5 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Cristian May 22 $226 −$226 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin May 22 $268 +$2 +1%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Ann Li May 22 $264 +$3 +1%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $400 +$20 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 100¢ $60 9m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 100¢ $55 9m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 97¢ $107 13m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 97¢ $5 13m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris SELL Billy Harris 100¢ $100 15m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris SELL Billy Harris 100¢ $11 15m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 97¢ $53 34m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 96¢ $4 34m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 96¢ $5 35m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 96¢ $5 35m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 96¢ $40 35m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 96¢ $1 35m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 100¢ $104 38m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Nicolas Mejia 98¢ $36 41m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Nicolas Mejia 97¢ $2 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Nicolas Mejia 97¢ $63 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina SELL Claire Liu 100¢ $106 44m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina BUY Claire Liu 96¢ $6 54m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina BUY Claire Liu 96¢ $67 54m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina BUY Claire Liu 96¢ $29 54m
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $101 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Naomi Osaka 99¢ $83 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Naomi Osaka 98¢ $17 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Clement Tabur 81¢ $60 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Clement Tabur 82¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Clement Tabur 82¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Clement Tabur 82¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Clement Tabur 82¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Clement Tabur 82¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Clement Tabur 82¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2654 history records