Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4694…5cee crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$203 (-32%) realized −$202 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$202
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -41.7% -47.2% 33% 33% -39.0%
≤30d 6 -41.7% -47.2% 33% 33% -39.0%
≤90d 6 -41.7% -47.2% 33% 33% -39.0%
all 6 -41.7% -47.2% 33% 33% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.2% 33% -39.0%
10% ← realistic here -52.3% 33% -44.8%
15% -56.9% 33% -50.2%
20% -61.1% 17% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$91 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$202
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$24 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $235 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $233 +$158 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$5 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.38 (match) · 25 history records