Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
46 0x4695…4d22 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$78 (+38%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$49
other 18% +$28
crypto 1% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +79.0% +62.0% 55% 55% +32.7%
≤30d 22 +79.0% +62.0% 55% 55% +32.7%
≤90d 22 +79.0% +62.0% 55% 55% +32.7%
all 27 +57.5% +42.5% 52% 48% +30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.5% 48% +30.4%
10% +28.9% 48% +17.9%
15% +16.4% 41% +6.5%
20% +5.0% 41% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +100% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage107d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France to score first vs. Senegal? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $10 +$21 +204%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +213%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$14 +138%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -8%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +320%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $18 +$4 +24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$10 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$6 -53%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +246%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$6 +91%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$13 -64%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -15%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 on March 8? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,500 on March 8? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 04 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Mar 04 $1 +$1 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to score first vs. Senegal? SELL Yes 69¢ $11 56m
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $36 5h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 12h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 12h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 13h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 13h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 14h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 14h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 94¢ $14 14h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $9 16h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 60¢ $9 16h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $9 16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 16h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $5 16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 17h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 18h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 19h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 19h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 19h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.57 · official $24.57 (match) · 63 history records