Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x4698…d7a5 sports 759 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48,750 (-3%) realized −$46,391 · open −$2,359
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%484W / 269L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,980per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$13,064est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$13,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,070
7 days−$13,044
14 days−$19,087
30 days−$38,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$54,830
other 3% +$545
crypto 0% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -6.1% -15.1% 60% 54% -20.2%
≤30d 396 -8.7% -17.4% 64% 57% -14.5%
≤90d 753 -7.9% -16.7% 64% 57% -12.4%
all 753 -7.9% -16.7% 64% 57% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 57% -12.4%
10% -24.7% 42% -20.8%
15% ← realistic here -32.0% 28% -28.4%
20% -38.6% 16% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$2,905) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$744 vs −$1,531 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$13,105
Realized−$46,391
Unrealized−$2,359
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses484 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$13,064
Open positions6
Markets (closed)753 / 759
History coverage55d
Avg bet$1,980
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 753 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 64¢ 60¢ $6,716 $6,202 −$514 (-8%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 92¢ 92¢ $3,000 $3,016 +$16 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jacob Fearnley 48¢ 46¢ $1,680 $1,627 −$52 (-3%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 46¢ 44¢ $1,500 $1,451 −$49 (-3%)
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Stefanos Sakellaridis 49¢ 26¢ $1,542 $807 −$736 (-48%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 70¢ 0¢ $1,025 $1 −$1,024 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 240 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $3,506 +$217 +6%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $5,771 +$1,246 +22%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $4,995 +$1,902 +38%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $1,985 +$2,292 +116%
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $2,513 +$499 +20%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $394 −$384 -98%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $4,022 +$857 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $698 −$684 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1,002 −$587 -59%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,354 −$738 -54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,002 +$59 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $560 +$268 +48%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $7,703 +$3,749 +49%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $1,366 +$85 +6%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $202 +$132 +65%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $2,360 −$2,333 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $1,005 +$173 +17%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,204 −$1,200 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $4,725 +$2,223 +47%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $1,028 +$545 +53%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $2,818 −$2,787 -99%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $2,008 +$289 +14%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $485 +$221 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2,019 −$2,000 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $3,028 +$1,029 +34%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $12 +$28 +226%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1,179 −$1,163 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $486 −$187 -39%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1,254 −$853 -68%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $242 +$35 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,953 +$165 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $482 −$480 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $759 −$753 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1,228 +$840 +68%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $479 +$348 +73%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $246 −$240 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $782 +$175 +22%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $486 +$356 +73%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $486 −$305 -63%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $485 +$246 +51%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $485 +$223 +46%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $60 +$90 +152%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $484 +$211 +44%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $482 +$91 +19%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $424 +$186 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,090 +$465 +43%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $971 +$217 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $474 +$184 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 46¢ $1,524 5m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 92¢ $3,007 7m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $7,017 8m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 68¢ $2,282 13m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 63¢ $2,659 17m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 63¢ $1,750 17m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 63¢ $1 17m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 54¢ $27 18m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 54¢ $19 18m
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $6,897 20m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 44¢ $792 27m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $4 30m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $24 30m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $4 30m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $3 34m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $24 35m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $24 35m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $24 35m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $66 39m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $5 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $1 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $1 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $1 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $7 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $1 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $2 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $2 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $68 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $3 42m
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 48¢ $18 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,104.51 · official $13,039.30 (match) · 2639 history records