Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x4699…7822 world 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$381 (+2%) realized +$248 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%138W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$22
14 days−$11
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$615
sports 20% −$260
other 3% +$18
politics 1% −$2
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 0% -21.9%
≤30d 33 +6.2% -3.9% 73% 36% -2.7%
≤90d 97 +4.6% -5.3% 75% 47% -3.7%
all 191 +7.6% -2.7% 72% 48% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 48% -8.5%
10% -12.0% 25% -17.3%
15% -20.5% 14% -25.3%
20% -28.3% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$49 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$1,471
Realized+$248
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses138 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)191 / 206
History coverage334d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 58¢ $230 $253 +$23 (+10%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 55¢ 86¢ $160 $247 +$87 (+54%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $180 $218 +$38 (+21%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Yes 88¢ 78¢ $200 $177 −$23 (-12%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $120 $125 +$5 (+4%)
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? No 60¢ 64¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 61¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+18%)
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? No 93¢ 91¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-3%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 28¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 18 $120 −$24 -20%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? Jun 10 $40 +$2 +5%
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $57 +$13 +22%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 −$3 -9%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $20 +$4 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $10 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 03 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? Jun 01 $145 +$20 +14%
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 01 $106 −$11 -10%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31? Jun 01 $81 +$12 +15%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? Jun 01 $454 +$22 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? May 30 $226 +$105 +47%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? May 28 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by May 31? May 28 $120 +$23 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 28 $80 −$26 -33%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by May 31? May 27 $168 +$16 +10%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? May 25 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31? May 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? May 25 $60 +$8 +14%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? May 25 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 25 $65 −$26 -41%
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 24 $53 +$18 +34%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 22 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? May 21 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? May 21 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? May 19 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? May 19 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? May 19 $50 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $110 +$3 +3%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 17 $189 +$50 +27%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? May 15 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by May 31, 2026? May 13 $125 +$18 +15%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? May 12 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? May 10 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? May 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? May 09 $150 +$5 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 09 $90 +$5 +5%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 09 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? May 09 $110 +$119 +108%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 09 $40 −$3 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $69 32m
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $200 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 22h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 84¢ $30 45h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $10 2d
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 5d
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 8d
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $40 8d
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? BUY No 93¢ $18 8d
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? BUY No 93¢ $16 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 80¢ $19 8d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 9d
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 82¢ $30 11d
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 78¢ $7 11d
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 82¢ $20 11d
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $50 11d
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $150 11d
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $94 11d
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $100 11d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 83¢ $20 13d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 14d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 78¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Heroic 83¢ $20 14d
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? BUY No 94¢ $14 15d
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,471.04 · official $1,471.04 (match) · 677 history records