Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x4699…695a weather 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$44 (+17%) realized +$49 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 44% +$23
crypto 35% +$25
other 14% −$3
politics 4% −$5
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +14.2% +3.3% 64% 60% +12.5%
≤30d 25 +14.2% +3.3% 64% 60% +12.5%
≤90d 25 +14.2% +3.3% 64% 60% +12.5%
all 25 +14.2% +3.3% 64% 60% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 60% +12.5%
10% -6.5% 40% +1.8%
15% -15.6% 28% -8.1%
20% -23.9% 12% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? No 85¢ 80¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? No 76¢ 94¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? No 67¢ 33¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-51%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 62¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$8 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 +$26 +106%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 25 $36 −$3 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $38 +$13 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 −$6 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $9 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$5 +286%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 -21%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 4m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 85¢ $36 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $36 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 63¢ $33 15h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 68¢ $36 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 33¢ $51 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 22¢ $38 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 47¢ $24 19h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 67¢ $9 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 76¢ $9 32h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 71¢ $9 41h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? SELL No 27¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? BUY No 29¢ $2 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 24? BUY No 83¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 62¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $2 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 85¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY No 62¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.53 · official $57.53 (match) · 55 history records