Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x469c…d2ca crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$365 (-1%) realized −$367 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%48W / 5L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$130
finance 15% +$122
other 12% −$754
tech 7% +$92
economics 4% +$5
sports 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 3 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 0% -4.1%
≤90d 11 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 9% -7.1%
all 53 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 9% -10.8%
10% -17.5% 0% -19.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$737) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$211 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$830
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses48 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage250d
Avg bet$489
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $467 $467 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $171 $172 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $139 $139 +$1 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $51 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $588 +$18 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $170 +$2 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $737 +$69 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 19 $729 +$9 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 03 $1,333 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 27 $102 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 25 $703 +$23 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 06 $701 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 29 $159 +$25 +16%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 29 $516 +$1 +0%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Mar 25 $459 +$57 +12%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 14 $158 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 10 $459 $0 -0%
Nets vs. Heat Mar 06 $432 +$27 +6%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Mar 05 $211 +$8 +4%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 05 $370 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 02 $369 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Feb 25 $366 +$3 +1%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Feb 25 $211 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 9-15? Feb 15 $209 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Feb 11 $423 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 2-8? Feb 08 $365 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 07 $363 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 01 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 30 $274 +$60 +22%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jan 03 $845 −$845 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 30 $206 +$3 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 29 $829 +$16 +2%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Dec 25 $98 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $95 +$10 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $930 +$87 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 16 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 16 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 16 $98 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $10 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $10 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $116k November 3-9? Nov 08 $1,399 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k November 3-9? Nov 07 $1,392 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $124,000 on November 4? Nov 04 $1,391 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 2? Nov 03 $1,382 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $1,383 +$1 +0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Nov 02 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on November 1? Nov 02 $1,368 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 30 $1,371 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 29? Oct 30 $1,410 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $467 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY No 93¢ $139 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $498 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 21h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $171 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $172 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $170 18d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY No 87¢ $51 18d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $484 18d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $705 18d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $105 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $94 23d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 23d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 23d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 23d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 33d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $38 33d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $648 33d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 33d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $19 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $46 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $693 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $729 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 100¢ $729 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL No 100¢ $604 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? SELL No 100¢ $104 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 100¢ $21 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 100¢ $603 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $29 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $159 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $830.36 · official $830.36 (match) · 230 history records