Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x469e…3123 sports 50 markets active 8h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$67 (+10%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$55
crypto 8% +$15
politics 5% +$9
other 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -39.8% -45.5% 38% 31% -34.5%
≤30d 13 -39.8% -45.5% 38% 31% -34.5%
≤90d 19 -58.8% -62.7% 26% 21% -64.9%
all 50 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 48% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 48% -0.3%
10% -19.3% 44% -9.8%
15% -27.1% 34% -18.5%
20% -34.2% 32% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage220d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$3 +65%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$2 -58%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Islanders vs. Stars Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Devils vs. Lightning Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Utah vs. Sharks Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bruins vs. Ducks Nov 20 $5 +$3 +61%
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers Nov 20 $7 +$4 +61%
Hurricanes vs. Wild Nov 20 $5 +$8 +163%
Flames vs. Sabres Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals Nov 20 $5 +$4 +89%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Nov 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Kings vs. Thunder Nov 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Nov 20 $7 +$6 +89%
Rangers vs. Golden Knights Nov 19 $5 +$4 +82%
Flames vs. Blackhawks Nov 19 $5 +$5 +108%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Nov 19 $5 +$8 +163%
Celtics vs. Nets Nov 19 $15 +$3 +19%
Blue Jackets vs. Jets Nov 18 $10 $0 -3%
Utah vs. Ducks Nov 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Nov 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Hornets vs. Raptors Nov 18 $18 +$5 +30%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 18 $5 −$2 -36%
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks Nov 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Kings vs. Spurs Nov 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Nov 17 $22 +$29 +133%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nov 16 $21 +$23 +108%
Lakers vs. Pelicans Nov 15 $34 +$9 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Nov 14 $55 +$15 +27%
Sabres vs. Avalanche Nov 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Stars vs. Canadiens Nov 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $22 −$4 -17%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $8 +$13 +162%
Will the government shutdown end November 11? Nov 12 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $129 +$37 +29%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $50 −$15 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $4 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes $1 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 14h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $4 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $4 14h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $5 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 14¢ $1 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Oilers vs. Capitals BUY Capitals 53¢ $5 209d
Flames vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 59¢ $5 209d
Bruins vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 62¢ $5 209d
Hurricanes vs. Wild BUY Wild 38¢ $5 209d
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers BUY Bulls 62¢ $7 209d
Kings vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 93¢ $10 209d
Nuggets vs. Pelicans BUY Nuggets 89¢ $9 209d
Hornets vs. Pacers BUY Hornets 54¢ $7 209d
Rockets vs. Cavaliers BUY Rockets 53¢ $7 209d
Suns vs. Trail Blazers SELL Suns 100¢ $13 210d
Flames vs. Blackhawks BUY Blackhawks 48¢ $5 210d
Rangers vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 55¢ $5 210d
Devils vs. Lightning BUY Devils 40¢ $5 210d
Utah vs. Sharks BUY Utah 56¢ $10 210d
Blues vs. Maple Leafs BUY Blues 50¢ $10 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records