Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
46 0x469e…1072 crypto 809 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$781 (+0%) realized +$2,850 · open −$2,069
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate52%404W / 378L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,862now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$85
14 days−$67
30 days+$1,215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$1,424
politics 31% −$2,064
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -15.9% -24.0% 41% 6% -10.0%
≤30d 252 +20.6% +9.1% 47% 13% -9.2%
≤90d 782 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 11% -9.4%
all 782 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 11% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 7% -18.0%
15% -32.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -39.1% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$36 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$6,862
Realized+$2,850
Unrealized−$2,069
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses404 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions27
Markets (closed)782 / 809
History coverage74d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 782 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $2,100 $4,164 +$2,064 (+98%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $996 $1,014 +$18 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $269 $272 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 99¢ $264 $270 +$6 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $177 $180 +$3 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? No 75¢ 93¢ $135 $167 +$32 (+24%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $115 $119 +$4 (+3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? No 80¢ 85¢ $82 $87 +$5 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $80 $72 −$8 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? No 89¢ 92¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 81¢ 96¢ $32 $38 +$6 (+19%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $2,100 $36 −$2,064 (-98%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? No 85¢ 81¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Yes 14¢ 25¢ $13 $24 +$11 (+79%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? No 19¢ 17¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? No 27¢ 12¢ $31 $14 −$17 (-53%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-49%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Yes 23¢ 8¢ $28 $9 −$19 (-67%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $341 +$63 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,336 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $626 +$40 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $305 −$31 -10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,328 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $118 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $662 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $394 −$6 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 17? Jun 17 $541 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $420 −$26 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $634 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $937 +$27 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $338 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? Jun 16 $751 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $115 +$72 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $662 +$27 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $64 −$60 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$19 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$28 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$146 +2243%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $273 −$5 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $416 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $532 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $854 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $626 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $24 −$22 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $630 +$120 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $226 +$21 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $240 −$8 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $522 −$25 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,618 +$71 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $914 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $234 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 76¢ $146 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $34 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $33 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $116 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $55 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 2¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 83¢ $80 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 83¢ $55 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,862.14 · official $6,862.14 (match) · 3068 history records