Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46a0…77a9 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$245 (-7%) realized −$245 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$65
14 days−$343
30 days−$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.8% +0.3% 67% 50% -16.8%
≤30d 23 -10.0% -18.6% 43% 26% -20.9%
≤90d 25 -14.0% -22.2% 40% 24% -21.9%
all 25 -14.0% -22.2% 40% 24% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 24% -21.9%
10% -29.7% 20% -29.4%
15% -36.5% 16% -36.2%
20% -42.7% 8% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$51 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$245
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage34d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $105 −$14 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $90 +$55 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $75 +$13 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $462 −$131 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $23 −$3 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $188 −$132 -70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$10 -47%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $108 −$88 -81%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $482 +$39 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $62 −$8 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $96 −$57 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $119 −$109 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $120 −$91 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $278 +$109 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $658 +$87 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $217 −$8 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 28 $73 +$33 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? May 26 $105 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $42 −$9 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $51 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $91 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $118 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $88 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $90 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $226 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $204 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $56 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $105 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $206 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $188 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 8d
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 8d
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 8d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $72 8d
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $108 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $181 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records