Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:00:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x46a1…2736 crypto 602 markets active 1h ago coverage 821d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 820d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,078 (+4%) realized +$6,528 · open +$6,550
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate66%348W / 176L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$516per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$61,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 821d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$9,436
world 21% +$8,477
tech 15% +$5,121
other 15% +$2,744
politics 13% −$4,742
culture 1% +$169
finance 0% +$125
sports 0% +$18
economics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +28.0% +15.8% 90% 20% +0.7%
≤30d 53 -16.1% -24.1% 57% 30% -0.4%
≤90d 144 -3.8% -13.0% 59% 31% -2.1%
all 524 +1.8% -7.9% 66% 38% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 38% -4.0%
10% -16.7% 24% -13.2%
15% -24.8% 16% -21.6%
20% -32.2% 12% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$137 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

821d coverage
Net worth$61,036
Realized+$6,528
Unrealized+$6,550
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses348 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions78
Markets (closed)524 / 602
History coverage821d ⚠
Avg bet$516
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 78 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $10,667 $10,891 +$224 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $3,742 $4,510 +$767 (+21%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 88¢ $3,467 $3,631 +$164 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 97¢ $2,547 $2,894 +$348 (+14%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 94¢ $2,280 $2,835 +$555 (+24%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 93¢ $1,950 $2,790 +$840 (+43%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $2,230 $2,241 +$11 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 94¢ $1,260 $1,870 +$610 (+48%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,815 $1,830 +$15 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 87¢ 90¢ $1,740 $1,790 +$50 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $1,740 $1,737 −$3 (-0%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1,740 $1,730 −$10 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,591 $1,719 +$128 (+8%)
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? No 43¢ 84¢ $836 $1,629 +$793 (+95%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 94¢ $1,005 $1,405 +$400 (+40%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 90¢ $1,155 $1,357 +$202 (+18%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 76¢ 77¢ $1,122 $1,130 +$8 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $905 $955 +$50 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $930 $935 +$5 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 84¢ $481 $856 +$375 (+78%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 84¢ $640 $846 +$205 (+32%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 100¢ $557 $681 +$124 (+22%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $588 $634 +$46 (+8%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $620 $619 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 96¢ $418 $592 +$173 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $260 +$10 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $686 +$105 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $467 +$33 +7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $61 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? Jun 15 $615 +$55 +9%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $89 +$204 +228%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 14 $993 +$7 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $1,939 +$173 +9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +92%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $900 +$50 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 13 $465 +$10 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $101 −$43 -43%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $753 +$1,556 +206%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $11,479 +$2,107 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $522 +$69 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $8,410 +$2,263 +27%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $1,812 −$1,812 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $915 +$7 +1%
Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE? Jun 12 $244 +$27 +11%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $16 +$3 +16%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 12 $16 +$24 +148%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,558 −$872 -34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $345 −$157 -45%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 07 $12 +$8 +68%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 05 $136 −$132 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Jun 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be betw Jun 03 $45 −$41 -92%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 1 be between 2,600,0 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? Jun 03 $46 −$46 -100%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 1 be less than 2,400 Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 03 $115 −$46 -40%
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? Jun 03 $17 −$13 -76%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? Jun 03 $17 −$6 -36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $218 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $64 +$36 +56%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $124 +$26 +20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $261 +$10 +4%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? May 30 $66 −$61 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $143 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $170 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $930 1h
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $273 4h
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $336 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $330 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,722 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $270 37h
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? SELL No 34¢ $29 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $260 39h
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $791 46h
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $204 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $760 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $41 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $41 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 2d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,740 2d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,740 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $12 2d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $109 3d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,035.60 · official $61,038.48 (match) · 3500 history records