Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46a6…0b8a crypto 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,267 (-19%) realized −$1,267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%108W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$183
7 days−$185
14 days−$185
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +35.6% +22.7% 36% 29% -14.2%
≤30d 97 +35.5% +22.6% 37% 31% -14.0%
≤90d 97 +35.5% +22.6% 37% 31% -14.0%
all 269 +15.1% +4.1% 40% 34% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 34% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 26% -26.0%
15% -14.9% 24% -33.2%
20% -23.3% 22% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses108 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 227
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -732%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +2421%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +701%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -3296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -7507%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -786%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$4 -625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -1068%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1936%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1099%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -2538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -1655%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +631%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -506%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -893%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -744%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -21220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -358%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +394%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +406%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -2070%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$8 -2614%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$21 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $160 −$50 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $76 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$40 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $121 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $76 +$11 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records