Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

46 0x46a6…0c24 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$46 (+3%) realized +$41 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$223per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+26.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+39.2%	+26.0%	100%	50%	+19.0%
≤30d	4	+39.2%	+26.0%	100%	50%	+19.0%
≤90d	4	+39.2%	+26.0%	100%	50%	+19.0%
all	4	+39.2%	+26.0%	100%	50%	+19.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.0%	50%	+19.0%
10%	+13.9%	50%	+7.6%
15%	+2.9%	50%	-2.8%
20%	-7.2%	25%	-12.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$74 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$317

Realized+$41

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$223

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	65¢	66¢	$287	$289	+$2 (+1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	26¢	$25	$28	+$3 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$502	+$50	+10%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$203	+$197	+97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$139	$0	+0%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Jun 22	$101	+$50	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	26¢	$85	2m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$401	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	100¢	$400	1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$400	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	65¢	$290	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$139	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	65¢	$151	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	100¢	$139	3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	50¢	$203	4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$151	4h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	9h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.14 · official $314.96 (match) · 13 history records