Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
46 0x46a8…c41f other 7 markets active 1d ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+6%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$51
14 days+$100
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.4% -28.8% 60% 40% -12.6%
≤30d 7 +6.0% -4.1% 71% 57% -4.3%
≤90d 7 +6.0% -4.1% 71% 57% -4.3%
all 7 +6.0% -4.1% 71% 57% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 57% -4.3%
10% -13.3% 57% -13.4%
15% -21.7% 57% -21.8%
20% -29.3% 29% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$105 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,000 +$14 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records