Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46a8…52ed sports 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%3W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$3
other 22% −$4
sports 19% −$3
economics 10% −$2
culture 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$2
tech 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 186 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses3 / 183
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage173d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $336 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $96 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $150 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $278 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $254 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 98¢ $45 1h
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 98¢ $45 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 12d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 13d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $35 26d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $36 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $44 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $44 42d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $48 124d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $48 124d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $41 124d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $41 124d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $46 124d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $46 124d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $43 124d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $44 124d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $48 124d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $48 124d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $42 124d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $42 124d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 124d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 124d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $46 124d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $46 124d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 124d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 124d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $43 124d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $43 124d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 124d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 650 history records