Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46a9…4e59 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$3
other 25% −$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.6% -10.0% 17% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 23% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 23% 0% -9.8%
all 42 -6.9% -15.8% 36% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -23.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage460d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $57 −$3 -4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $17 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $65 −$3 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $42 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $26 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $132 +$5 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on May 9? May 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 08 $4 $0 +5%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary el May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $13 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $18 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $17 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $14 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $33 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $33 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $34 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records