Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46aa…eb4c other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% $0
other 17% −$9
politics 8% +$1
sports 4% +$12
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.6% -5.4% 50% 17% -9.0%
≤30d 16 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 16 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 6% -9.5%
all 49 +6.2% -3.9% 47% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 4% -9.2%
10% -13.1% 4% -17.9%
15% -21.5% 2% -25.8%
20% -29.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage449d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $48 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +26%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $42 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $20 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $91 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $63 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Merz events on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 04 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 21 $4 $0 +9%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 16 $5 $0 -10%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 21 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Jets draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $3 +$12 +374%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $49 19m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $48 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $1 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $33 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $34 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $48 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $48 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $41 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $3 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $43 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records