Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x46b2…df24 world 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$311 · open −$282
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate69%41W / 18L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$13
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$324
other 17% −$148
politics 13% +$110
tech 5% +$76
crypto 2% −$62
sports 2% −$107
economics 2% −$101
culture 2% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -10.7% -19.2% 67% 58% -4.9%
≤90d 48 +3.1% -6.7% 71% 62% +2.1%
all 59 +1.7% -8.0% 69% 63% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 63% -4.1%
10% -16.8% 53% -13.2%
15% -24.8% 36% -21.6%
20% -32.2% 10% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$71 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized+$311
Unrealized−$282
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses41 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)59 / 69
History coverage144d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 33¢ 80¢ $100 $242 +$142 (+142%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $96 $90 −$6 (-6%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $99 $76 −$23 (-23%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 36¢ $103 $67 −$35 (-34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $70 $60 −$10 (-15%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 14¢ $54 $12 −$43 (-79%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 57¢ $71 $3 −$68 (-96%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 26¢ $104 $3 −$101 (-98%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 33¢ $88 $2 −$86 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $72 +$32 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $70 +$26 +37%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 30 $60 +$24 +40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 30 $57 +$6 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $100 +$69 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $106 +$26 +24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $102 +$44 +43%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $104 +$23 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 23 $77 +$37 +48%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $70 +$17 +25%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 22 $59 +$45 +76%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $106 +$36 +34%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $55 +$22 +39%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 14 $52 +$26 +50%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 10 $49 −$29 -60%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 06 $104 +$34 +33%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 06 $102 −$102 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? May 03 $102 −$102 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 30 $100 +$29 +29%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 25 $100 +$29 +29%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 25 $51 +$45 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $46 +$18 +38%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 25 $107 −$107 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 24 $100 +$18 +18%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 24 $48 +$19 +40%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $61 −$28 -45%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e Apr 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 08 $104 +$7 +7%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 08 $138 +$40 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Mar 30 $150 +$372 +248%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $100 +$96 +96%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $99 +$68 +69%
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $98 +$37 +37%
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $101 +$20 +20%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 26 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Mar 24 $100 +$34 +34%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $85 +$36 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $96 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $103 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $99 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 33¢ $103 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $5 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $62 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $104 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $96 18d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $9 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 18d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $18 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 18d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $48 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $73 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $70 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $70 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $122 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $20 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $50 24d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $84 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $62 24d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $60 25d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 99¢ $169 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $131 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $602.52 · official $600.96 (match) · 195 history records