Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46b2…419e world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$7
other 25% $0
politics 14% +$1
tech 7% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -3.4% -12.6% 9% 0% -11.7%
all 29 -1.0% -10.4% 24% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage397d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $7 −$1 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $41 −$2 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $40 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 19 $41 −$3 -6%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $27 $0 -1%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 05 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Fartcoin reach $2.00 before June? Jun 03 $27 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 24 $27 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 20h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $26 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $2 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $24 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $18 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $18 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 61¢ $39 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 64¢ $41 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $12 33d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $28 33d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $40 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $39 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 36d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? BUY No 95¢ $2 365d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? SELL No 97¢ $27 380d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY No 97¢ $27 380d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.72 · official $40.72 (match) · 65 history records