Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46b2…f252 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,640 (-15%) realized −$1,611 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$861
sports 28% +$357
other 23% −$1,565
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -28.6% -35.4% 38% 28% -26.9%
≤30d 29 -28.6% -35.4% 38% 28% -26.9%
≤90d 29 -28.6% -35.4% 38% 28% -26.9%
all 29 -28.6% -35.4% 38% 28% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.4% 28% -26.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.6% 24% -33.9%
15% -47.3% 14% -40.3%
20% -52.4% 7% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -29% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$195 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$1,611
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 56¢ 50¢ $281 $252 −$29 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $221 −$219 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $766 −$758 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,326 −$559 -42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $599 +$426 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $345 −$272 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $618 −$326 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $217 −$137 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $336 +$123 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $140 −$88 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $129 −$38 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$42 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$31 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $511 +$325 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $310 −$176 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $155 −$66 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$40 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $258 +$83 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $438 −$43 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$91 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $414 +$148 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $238 −$127 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $156 −$150 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,824 +$189 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $354 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $303 +$93 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $65 9m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $220 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $121 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $766 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $767 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $300 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $221 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 42¢ $150 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $449 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $265 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $81 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.05 · official $252.05 (match) · 160 history records