Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x46b3…d3de weather 1263 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$11,153 (+4237%) realized +$10,658 · open +$495
Gross ROI / mkt +113% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate74%331W / 118L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day1303.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,007now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$381
weather 19% +$48
crypto 5% +$92
tech 3% +$30
culture 2% +$13
world 2% +$5
finance 1% +$17
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+92.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 449 +113.1% +92.8% 74% 73% +58.9%
≤30d 449 +113.1% +92.8% 74% 73% +58.9%
≤90d 449 +113.1% +92.8% 74% 73% +58.9%
all 449 +113.1% +92.8% 74% 73% +58.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1303.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +92.8% 73% +58.9%
10% ← realistic here +74.4% 67% +43.7%
15% +57.5% 57% +29.8%
20% +42.1% 49% +17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +113% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +138% → late +89% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.0 per $1 lost it wins $10.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,007
Realized+$10,658
Unrealized+$495
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses331 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions498
Markets (closed)449 / 1263
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day1303.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 498 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ $49 $106 +$57 (+116%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $98 $87 −$11 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $77 $74 −$3 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $60 $45 −$16 (-26%)
Will George Pickens play for Houston Texans in 2026-27? Yes 22¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+2100%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Dallas Cowboys in 2026-27? Yes 42¢ $0 $16 +$15 (+4150%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27? Yes 42¢ $0 $16 +$15 (+4150%)
Will George Pickens play for New York Giants in 2026-27? Yes 18¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+1700%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Los Angeles Chargers in 2026-27? Yes 44¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+4300%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27? Yes 44¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+4250%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+26%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27? Yes 43¢ $0 $14 +$13 (+4200%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27? Yes 40¢ $0 $13 +$12 (+3900%)
Will George Pickens play for Washington Commanders in 2026-27? Yes 19¢ $1 $12 +$12 (+2269%)
Will George Pickens play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27? Yes 39¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+3790%)
Will George Pickens play for Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026-27? Yes 12¢ $1 $12 +$11 (+1100%)
Will Joey Bosa play for San Francisco 49ers in 2026-27? Yes 35¢ $0 $11 +$11 (+3400%)
Will Robert Voloder win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes 16¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1550%)
Will George Pickens play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27? Yes 11¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1000%)
Will Joey Bosa play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27? Yes 41¢ $0 $11 +$10 (+4000%)
Will George Pickens play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27? Yes 10¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+900%)
Will George Pickens play for Chicago Bears in 2026-27? Yes 10¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+900%)
Will George Pickens play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27? Yes 10¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+900%)
Will São Bernardo win Brazil Série B? Yes 46¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4550%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Buffalo Bills in 2026-27? Yes 42¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Women Gaborone: Completed Match: Tanisha Kashyap vs D'Estree Colal Jun 27 $0 +$7 +6155%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +56%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 27 $0 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C or below on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +73%
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +118%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +48%
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $19B and $22B at market clo Jun 27 $0 $0 +100%
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Jun 27 $0 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +150%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 1? Jun 27 $0 $0 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on June Jun 27 $0 $0 +42%
Will "GOLDEN HOUR: Part.5 - ATEEZ" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for t Jun 27 $0 +$2 +2050%
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? Jun 27 $0 $0 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on June 29? Jun 27 $0 $0 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? Jun 27 $0 $0 +30%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 29? Jun 27 $0 $0 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 29? Jun 27 $0 $0 +150%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 30? Jun 27 $0 +$1 +300%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +22%
Will "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 27 $0 +$1 +387%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of June? Jun 27 $0 $0 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +65%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +43%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 $0 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $330 end of June? Jun 27 $0 +$1 +850%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 29 above $245? Jun 27 $0 +$1 +850%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 29? Jun 27 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 102-103°F on June 2 Jun 27 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 27 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $0 +$5 +3233%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 $0 +19%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 27 $0 $0 +23%
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? Jun 27 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 +230%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? Jun 27 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on June 29? Jun 27 $0 $0 +100%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 27 $1 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 -44%
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 27 $0 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 29? Jun 27 $0 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 28 BUY Yes $0 2m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on July 4? BUY No $0 5m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 4? BUY Yes $0 5m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 4? BUY Yes $0 5m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on July 4? BUY No $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 28 BUY Yes $0 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 4? BUY No $0 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 4? BUY No $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? BUY Yes $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 28? BUY Yes $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 28 BUY Yes $0 9m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 12¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C or below on June 28? BUY Yes $0 16m
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY Yes $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C or below on June 28? SELL Yes $0 21m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 22m
Will ITG not IPO before September 2026? BUY Yes $0 22m
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes $0 22m
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2? SELL Yes $0 23m
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 24m
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $19B and $22B at market clo SELL Yes $0 30m
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App BUY Yes $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 28? SELL Yes $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 28 BUY Yes $0 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 1? BUY Yes $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 29? BUY Yes $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 29? BUY Yes $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 29? BUY Yes $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 29? BUY Yes $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 29? BUY Yes $0 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,007.01 · official $1,078.91 · 3500 history records