Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x46b3…19a6 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%17W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$11
politics 19% −$6
sports 8% +$84
economics 7% −$3
culture 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.3% +3.4% 14% 14% -9.1%
≤30d 21 +4.7% -5.3% 10% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 118 +5.5% -4.6% 14% 12% -9.3%
all 118 +5.5% -4.6% 14% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 12% -9.3%
10% -13.7% 12% -18.0%
15% -22.0% 12% -25.9%
20% -29.7% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×10.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage89d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $177 $177 +$0 (+0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$8 +101%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $350 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $377 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $346 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $317 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 02 $176 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $113 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $309 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $305 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $287 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $317 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $295 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $318 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $292 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $296 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $320 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 03 $315 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,188 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $316 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $298 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $306 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $314 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $317 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $315 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 3h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $109 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $8 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $71 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $71 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $177 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $39 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $39 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 11d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 16d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $52 16d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 17d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 18d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $57 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.56 · official $286.56 (match) · 312 history records