Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46b4…72e9
crypto · 785 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$809 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$612 · open −$83
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$718
Realized+$612
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses417 / 358
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions19
Markets (closed)775 / 785
History coverage71d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 19 History 775 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$1,331
14 days+$1,175
30 days+$1,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 72¢ 69¢ $82 $80 −$3 (-3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 85¢ 96¢ $64 $73 +$9 (+14%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 50¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 30¢ 24¢ $48 $39 −$9 (-18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 51¢ 44¢ $41 $35 −$6 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $27 $28 +$2 (+6%)
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 89¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 2¢ $82 $5 −$76 (-93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+122%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 68¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 53¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 46¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 69¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 56¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 66¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$2 -2356%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Jun 12 $0 −$44 -131540%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5? Jun 12 $0 +$5 +9471%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$24 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $944 +$178 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 25% −$80
world 19% +$224
weather 14% −$1,043
politics 12% −$89
other 12% −$807
sports 9% −$152
culture 7% +$1,755
economics 1% +$735
finance 1% +$50
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 439 +21.8% +10.2% 72% 52% -19.9%
≤30d 477 +20.7% +9.2% 68% 49% -20.9%
≤90d 775 +22.1% +10.5% 54% 39% -16.7%
all 775 +22.1% +10.5% 54% 39% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.5% 39% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -0.1% 28% -24.7%
15% -9.7% 21% -32.0%
20% -18.6% 17% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.47 · official $713.23 (match) · 3500 history records