Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46b6…d6d2 sports 490 markets active 1h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$871 (-2%) realized −$850 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate71%343W / 142L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$138
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$898
sports 9% −$77
world 2% +$56
culture 0% −$14
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.6% -12.7% 59% 12% -12.8%
≤30d 49 -13.2% -21.4% 63% 24% -20.7%
≤90d 216 -2.4% -11.7% 84% 18% -8.2%
all 485 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 34% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 34% -11.5%
10% -19.2% 26% -20.0%
15% -27.0% 20% -27.7%
20% -34.2% 16% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$850
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses343 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions5
Markets (closed)485 / 490
History coverage366d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will primmie have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Yes 94¢ 77¢ $102 $83 −$18 (-18%)
Something to have the most kills No 64¢ 65¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 86¢ 86¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will "World Champion" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Finals? Yes 76¢ 44¢ $8 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-5.5) Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$1 -21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -10%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +96%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$3 -25%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$2 -17%
Connor Metcalfe: 1+ goals Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Breel Embolo: 1+ assists Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $41 −$21 -51%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? Jun 12 $116 −$116 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$95 +93%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$4 +21%
Alexis Vega: 1+ assists Jun 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $96 +$4 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Exact Score: RCA Zemamra 2 - 1 US Yacoub El Mansour? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +124%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? Jun 02 $66 +$10 +15%
Will Gabriel Sara be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $10 $0 +5%
Will Danilo Barbosa da Silva be included in Brazil's official 2026 Wor Jun 02 $5 $0 +5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $5 +$1 +27%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 1 Winner May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 28 $3 +$1 +31%
Exact Score: Club Nacional de Football 2 - 0 CD Coquimbo Unido? May 27 $23 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Clube Náutico Capibaribe 2 - 0 Cuiabá EC? May 23 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 18 $304 +$41 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 86¢ $7 36m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 38m
Will "World Champion" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 BUY Yes 76¢ $8 50m
Something to have the most kills BUY No 64¢ $13 1h
Will primmie have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 BUY Yes 97¢ $26 1h
Will primmie have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $23 1h
Will primmie have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $52 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $10 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $4 2d
Spread: Mexico (-5.5) BUY Korea Republic 100¢ $14 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $1 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 82¢ $10 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $10 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 80¢ $10 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 72¢ $8 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $10 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $9 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.07 · official $115.07 (match) · 1343 history records