Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46be…9491
crypto · 17 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$69 -57%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$57 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$6 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$57
other 10% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-50.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -45.0% -50.3% 19% 19% -58.6%
≤30d 16 -45.0% -50.3% 19% 19% -58.6%
≤90d 16 -45.0% -50.3% 19% 19% -58.6%
all 16 -45.0% -50.3% 19% 19% -58.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.3% 19% -58.6%
10% ← realistic here -55.0% 19% -62.5%
15% -59.4% 19% -66.1%
20% -63.4% 19% -69.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 33 history records