Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46c2…927b
weather · 175 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$65 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$53 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$320
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses126 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)162 / 175
History coverage72d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 13 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$73
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 84¢ 83¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 73¢ 73¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? No 92¢ 92¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 14? No 90¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 94¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Over 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Tokushima Vortis vs. Iwaki FC: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 18? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: Both Teams to Score Yes 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 18? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 13? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 15? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $32 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$2 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 12? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $41 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$7 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 1 Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 58% +$14
crypto 34% +$33
sports 4% +$1
world 3% $0
finance 0% +$6
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $26 25m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 53m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 58m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 72¢ $15 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $51 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $16 2h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 72¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $16 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 84¢ $7 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $16 4h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 84¢ $8 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 84¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $16 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $16 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $24 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $48 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +2.7% -7.1% 88% 6% -6.9%
≤30d 135 +11.5% +0.9% 86% 7% -7.2%
≤90d 162 +7.8% -2.5% 78% 7% -8.1%
all 162 +7.8% -2.5% 78% 7% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 7% -8.1%
10% -11.8% 4% -16.9%
15% -20.3% 3% -24.9%
20% -28.1% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.57 · official $319.57 (match) · 793 history records