Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x46c5…267c other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$167 (+3%) realized +$163 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$204
14 days+$269
30 days+$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$791
sports 31% −$481
world 24% −$134
politics 8% −$30
crypto 5% +$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +38.6% +25.4% 60% 60% -18.3%
≤30d 11 +33.2% +20.5% 64% 55% -4.0%
≤90d 18 +14.4% +3.5% 56% 39% -7.1%
all 18 +14.4% +3.5% 56% 39% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 39% -7.1%
10% -6.4% 39% -16.0%
15% -15.4% 28% -24.1%
20% -23.7% 22% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$181 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage66d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $120 $124 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $641 −$630 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $404 +$296 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $393 +$277 +70%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $537 −$525 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 +$378 +250%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $234 +$266 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $388 +$112 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $301 +$125 +42%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 09 $440 −$30 -7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $303 +$7 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $340 −$27 -8%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $115 −$115 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 11? May 11 $3 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $468 +$132 +28%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 03 $13 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? May 02 $296 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $410 −$124 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $123 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $641 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $404 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $393 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $537 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $152 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $388 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $234 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $301 8d
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? SELL Yes 82¢ $410 11d
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? BUY Yes 88¢ $70 11d
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? BUY Yes 88¢ $54 11d
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? BUY Yes 88¢ $317 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? SELL Yes 59¢ $206 27d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? SELL Yes 71¢ $106 27d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? BUY Yes 68¢ $340 27d
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 35d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 23¢ $115 40d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 11? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 40d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 11? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $303 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 78¢ $468 47d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL Yes 55¢ $12 48d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $296 66d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $143 66d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 66d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 66d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 66d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.50 · official $124.50 (match) · 54 history records